Maariv poll: Likud loses power - and the parties that are surging and imposing a tie

A Maariv poll reveals a tie between the coalition and opposition blocs (60 each), following a strengthening of the Arab parties by 2 seats. "Yashar!" leads with 21, Likud 18, "Together" 13. 55% prefer a unity government in case of a deadlock.

A Maariv poll, conducted on October 14-15, 2026 among 700 respondents (margin of error 3.7%), indicates a tie between the coalition and opposition blocs, each with 60 seats. The main factor for the tie is a dramatic strengthening of 2 seats in the Arab parties: the Joint List and Ra'am rise from 12 to 14 seats, shrinking the major blocs. The "Yashar!" party led by Gadi Eisenkot leads with 21 seats, Likud led by Benjamin Netanyahu drops to 18, "Together" led by Naftali Bennett gets 13, Democrats 9, Yisrael Beiteinu led by Avigdor Liberman 8, Otzma Yehudit 8, Joint List 8, United Torah Judaism 8, Shas 7, Religious Zionism 6, Ra'am 6, Amcha Yisrael 4, and the Reservists and the Economic Party 4. The parties "Blue and White", "The Haredi Public", "Noam for Israel" and "Tzomet Beit Yisrael" do not pass the electoral threshold. The undecided rate stands at 5.2%. A majority of Israelis (79%) are optimistic about their bloc's victory, with a significant gap between coalition voters (90% optimistic) and opposition voters (75%). 55% of the public would prefer a unity government if there is no decisive outcome, compared to 27% who would prefer another election. Among opposition voters, 54% would be willing to join a unity government only if led by a leader from the change bloc. Coalition voters are divided: 36% would prefer a unity government led by Netanyahu, 32% would prefer another election.