Kuwait, Lebanon, Syria leading options for Abraham Accords expansion, CSA report assesses

The Council for a Secure America (CSA) ranked Kuwait as the most likely Middle Eastern country to join the Abraham Accords, followed by Lebanon and Syria, in a report assessing nine Muslim-majority nations. The rankings, based on expert analysis and polling, reflect shifting political and security conditions that could reshape normalization prospects with Israel.

The Council for a Secure America (CSA) released a report on October 8 ranking Kuwait, Lebanon, and Syria as the top candidates for expanding the Abraham Accords. The report assessed nine Muslim-majority countries without formal diplomatic relations with Israel. Kuwait ranked first despite its longstanding opposition to normalization and laws barring trade with Israel, citing the emir's growing authority since suspending parliament in May 2024, closer ties with the UAE, and strong security ties with Washington. Lebanon placed second following significant diplomatic activity, including a US-brokered "Trilateral Framework" signed in June under which Lebanon recognized Israeli sovereignty for the first time. Syria ranked third after talks accelerated following the fall of the Assad regime, with President Ahmed al-Sharaa stating the countries had "almost reached agreements on 90%" of outstanding issues. Saudi Arabia, previously seen as a leading candidate, has moved further away since October 7, 2023, and the 2026 Iran War. Oman has become less likely to normalize despite a history of contacts. Qatar maintains working contacts but conditions full normalization on an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement. Iraq remains unlikely due to Iranian influence and a 2022 law criminalizing normalization. Yemen's civil war makes normalization highly unlikely, and Iran ranked last with normalization deemed impossible under its current regime.