Israel and the Crisis of Situation Assessment..
An analysis argues that Israel has not absorbed the deeper lesson of October 7, and continues a mistaken reading of the Palestinian based on the belief that force and siege can produce acceptance of the occupation, warning of repeating the same equation with harsher tools.
An analysis argues that Israel has not absorbed the deeper lesson of October 7, and continues a mistaken reading of the Palestinian based on the belief that force and siege can produce acceptance of the occupation. The article criticizes the old Israeli assumption that military and technological superiority, siege, pressure, and deterrence can make the Palestinian containable indefinitely. It points out that October 7 revealed the magnitude of the error in these assessments, but political and field indicators raise doubts that Israel has changed its way of reading the Palestinian. The article warns that the danger today is repeating the same equation with harsher tools: more force, met with more belief that the Palestinian will eventually accept what is imposed on them. It concludes that Israel may have discussed the failure of October 7 at length, but it did not understand its deeper lesson: that military superiority may impose a reality for some time, but it does not guarantee a people's acceptance of occupation nor eliminate the causes of the conflict.