Is humanity facing a twofold reduction in numbers – scientists

Economists Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Patrick Norrick question official UN fertility forecasts, claiming that the global rate has already fallen below replacement level. Analysis of data from Colombia, Egypt, and Turkey suggests possible statistical overestimation. The decline is not due to gadgets but a shift in the social model, where children have become a long-term investment. In East Asia, the rate has dropped to 0.7. Demographers are divided: some predict a halving, others stabilization.

Economists Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Patrick Norrick have presented a study questioning official UN forecasts on global fertility. They argue that the rate has already fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, and the UN's figure of 2.3 may be inflated. Analysis of statistics from Colombia, Egypt, and Turkey points to possible errors in calculations. The cause of the decline, according to experts, is not gadgets or social media, but a fundamental transformation of the social model: children have ceased to be an economic asset and have become long-term investments with no material return. Key factors cited include housing affordability, rigid work schedules, lack of support from the older generation, and the social acceptability of childlessness. The most critical situation is in East Asia, where fertility rates in China, Taiwan, and South Korea have fallen to 0.7. Despite this, demographic inertia will ensure population growth to 9–10 billion before the decline begins. Expert opinions are divided: some foresee a catastrophic halving, while others, like demographer Ronald Lee, hope for stabilization around two children in a few decades.