Iran's most dangerous achievement in the war
Yoel Guzansky analyzes the strategic stranglehold Iran is exerting on Saudi Arabia from three directions: Hormuz from the east, Iraq from the north, and the Houthis from the south. Mohammed bin Salman tried to stay out of the conflict, but his maneuvering room is shrinking. As Riyadh becomes convinced that no one will rescue it, it may turn to Tehran and pay with concessions that will harm Israel and the US.
Yoel Guzansky analyzes in an opinion article the strategic stranglehold Iran is exerting on Saudi Arabia. Around the kingdom, an Iranian stranglehold has formed: the Strait of Hormuz from the east, pro-Iranian militias in Iraq from the north, and the Houthis from the south. Together, they allow Iran to threaten Saudi Arabia's ability to export energy securely. Mohammed bin Salman tried throughout the war to avoid this situation, keep the kingdom out of the conflict, and leave channels open with Tehran, but his maneuvering room is shrinking. The alternatives are insufficient: the US is not providing the assistance Riyadh wants, the UAE is not the military partner it once was, and the new agreement with Turkey and Pakistan has yet to prove itself. As Riyadh becomes convinced that no one will rescue it, it may turn to Iran itself. Riyadh needs calm: for Hormuz to open, for the fire from Iraq to stop, and for the Houthis to lower the flames. Iran can convert military pressure into political concessions. The price Riyadh may pay: distancing from the American effort to isolate Iran, opposing the use of its territory against it, supporting the easing of economic pressure, limiting cooperation with Israel, and accepting a stronger Houthi position in Yemen. The article highlights the gap in interests: Washington and Jerusalem look at the regional balance of power, Riyadh looks at self-rescue from the siege. This, according to Guzansky, is Iran's most dangerous achievement in the war: creating a reality where Riyadh concludes that only Tehran can release it from the pressure it itself is exerting.