Even Texas and Kansas on the verge of a flip: all the signs of a "blue tsunami" against Trump

Less than a month before the US midterm elections, all the signs point to a large Democratic wave that could bring a flip even in solidly Republican strongholds like Texas and Kansas. The polls show a Democratic advantage in the Senate and the House of Representatives, against the backdrop of public frustration with the war in Iran, the cost of living and the jump in gasoline prices. The article surveys the prominent Democratic candidates and the prospects for a Democratic takeover of Congress.

Less than a month before the US midterm elections, which will be held on November 3, 2026, all the signs point to a large Democratic wave that could bring a flip even in solidly Republican strongholds. The article surveys the state of the polls and the models, and notes that the Cook Political Report model estimates a gain of 9 to 19 seats for the Democrats in the House of Representatives, while the Nate Silver model gives the Democrats a 72.6% chance of winning a majority in the Senate. Polls by Siena University/New York Times place Democratic Senate candidates ahead or tied in Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Kansas and Alaska. Texas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, but James Talarico leads there over the Republican Ken Paxton. Kansas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate for 94 years, but Adam Hamilton is running a tight race against the incumbent Republican Roger Marshall. The main reasons for the trend: public frustration with the war in Iran, the jump in gasoline prices and the cost of living. The Republicans currently control both houses of Congress, but the article notes that the midterm "curse" is expected to hurt them.