Erdogan will have to face a new challenge – forecast

The OECD has downgraded its forecast for Turkey's economic growth in 2026 to 2.7% against the backdrop of the war in the Middle East, rising energy and fertilizer prices. This is the lowest figure since 2020. The forecast for 2027 has also been revised downward to 3.6%. Inflation is estimated to fall to 31.5% in 2026 and 24.7% in 2027.

The OECD has published an updated forecast for Turkey's economy, lowering expected GDP growth in 2026 to 2.7% — the lowest figure since 2020. The previous estimate was 3.1%. The forecast for 2027 has also been revised downward to 3.6%. The main pressure factors cited are the consequences of the military conflict in the Middle East, rising energy and fertilizer costs, which increase business expenses and create risks for consumers. The OECD forecasts a gradual decline in inflation in Turkey: to 31.5% in 2026 and 24.7% in 2027. The organization's global forecast has been slightly improved, with world economic growth expected at 2.9% in 2026. However, further developments will depend on the duration of the conflict and the stability of energy and agricultural supplies. The authorities led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan will have to consider the impact of external shocks when implementing economic policy.