Critical week of decision: Oil is running out – Iran approaches the moment it feared

The American naval blockade on Iran is depleting Tehran's external oil reserves, which stood at about 90 million barrels in July and are expected to run out in the coming week. Iran has not loaded new oil since mid-August, production output has been cut to about 1.8 million barrels per day, and dozens of tankers from the 'shadow fleet' are stranded, unable to return to their ports of origin. The article presents data from Kpler and reports that regional crude oil exports of Arab Gulf states rose to about 19.5 million barrels per day in the last week of September, exceeding pre-war levels. The article emphasizes that the loss of oil revenue poses an existential threat to the stability of the Ayatollahs' regime, as the funds are used to finance the Revolutionary Guards, militias, and pay salaries to hundreds of thousands of civil servants. The analysis argues that the collapse of payment capacity could lead to a widespread popular uprising against the regime.