Collapse of oil exports pushes Iran toward a possible compromise with the United States

Diplomatic efforts between the US and Iran focus on the possibility of releasing $6 billion in frozen funds in exchange for nuclear concessions. According to reports, the severe oil crisis following the depletion of the 'shadow fleet' stockpile is pushing the regime toward a compromise. Oil revenues are estimated at $24 billion per month. The US is considering a third campaign.

Diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran revolve around money: the sides are discussing the possibility that Iran will receive part of approximately $6 billion of its frozen funds in exchange for concessions in its nuclear program. The US demands the immediate opening of some sites for IAEA inspections. Reports indicate a sudden flexibility by the regime, likely stemming from a severe cash shortage due to the American naval blockade preventing oil exports. According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, Iran anticipated the blockade and held a 'shadow fleet' of oil tankers in the Indian Ocean, which were sold to China in limited quantities. This oil ran out in the past week, and Iran faces a significant economic crisis. The oil in the tankers is estimated to have brought in about $24 billion per month. Another sign of the crisis is the resignation of Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad earlier this month. The depletion of foreign currency reserves is harming the ability to subsidize imports of medicine and basic goods: the governor allocated $27 billion for the first half of the year, compared to $40 billion last year. The IMF estimates annual inflation of about 85%. The article notes that a principled decision has been made in the US for a third campaign, which could accelerate the regime's collapse or its significant accommodation.