Coalition of Adversaries: Elite Consensus and Dual Legitimacy in the Palestinian Arena Before the 2026 Elections
A theoretical political analysis of an electoral coalition comprising Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Muhammad Dahlan faction, and the reformist wing of Fatah, ahead of the Palestinian Legislative Council elections scheduled for 2026. The article discusses the fragile consensus among historical adversaries and the dual international legitimacy between supporting Abbas institutionally and keeping Dahlan as an alternative option.
On September 26, 2026, the Palestinian Central Elections Commission opened candidacy for the Legislative Council after two decades of electoral stagnation. However, the article views the more significant event as the rapidly forming coalition uniting Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the reformist wing of Fatah led by Muhammad Dahlan, and the National Democratic Assembly led by Nasser al-Qudwa. This coalition brings together parties that until recently were in opposing ideological, security, and political trenches. The article analyzes this shift through two theories: first, Arend Lijphart's consociational democracy theory, viewing the temporary grand coalition as allowing proportional representation sharing within a closed list, while each bloc retains its independent organizational, security, and ideological structure. Second, the elite circulation theory, where Dahlan—expelled from Gaza in 2007 and rebuilding his influence abroad through Emirati-Israeli-American networks—represents a "fox-like elite" favoring political maneuvering and flexible alliances. In its second axis, the article discusses dual international legitimacy: Western support for Abbas and PA institutions as an investment in legal-rational legitimacy, while keeping Dahlan as a backup option through what the author calls "functional-performance legitimacy" based on presumed ability to deliver on the ground. The article uses agency theory to explain how international and regional actors act as principals seeking stability serving their interests, without exclusive commitment to a single agent.