Bill Ackman in an optimistic letter about the future of AI: "Analyst forecasts reflect a striking disconnect"

Bill Ackman, manager of Pershing Square hedge fund, published an optimistic letter to shareholders for the third quarter of 2026, arguing that cloud giants' capital expenditures on artificial intelligence are offensive rather than defensive. According to him, analyst forecasts reflect a striking disconnect: they expect continued high capital intensity but assume minimal acceleration in revenue growth. Ackman believes it is very likely that revenue growth will exceed forecasts. The letter distinguishes between infrastructure providers (chip companies) that have already benefited from the race, and cloud giants (Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Google) that have not yet been fully appreciated. Ackman quotes Amazon CEO Andy Jassy, who explains that investment in building shells is long-term, while servers and network equipment are purchased close to demand. At Meta, digital advertising benefits from improved targeting through AI, with growth accelerating from 22% in 2025 to 27% in 2026. At Microsoft, the number of paid Copilot seats doubled to over 30 million. Ackman estimates that building one gigawatt of data center capacity costs $40-50 billion and can generate annual revenues of $15-20 billion. He emphasizes that cloud giants are in a strong financial position, with almost no net debt, and can fund expenditures from current cash flow.