Analysts estimate: up to 80% chance of renewed war with Iran

Analysts estimate a 60%-80% chance of renewed war with Iran, despite the Democrats' victory in the midterm elections. Oil prices could surge to $130 per barrel. Tensions continue with strikes in the region and a US troop buildup.

Analysts estimate that there is up to an 80% chance of renewed war between the US and Iran, despite the Democrats' victory in the midterm elections. Consulting firm Rapidan Energy assesses an 80% probability of renewed fighting, while Eurasia Group estimates a 60% probability of renewed US strikes. These assessments contrast with the trend in the oil market, where prices have fallen more than 16% in five days, after Vice President Vance linked the Republican defeat to the war. However, Rapidan President Bob McNally warns that renewed fighting would push oil prices above $100 per barrel, and Bloomberg Economics projects a scenario of $120-$130. Tensions continue: attacks on oil tankers near Oman, explosions in Iran, and a US troop buildup with a third carrier strike group. Democrats plan to advance a resolution to end the war, but Trump can veto. Meanwhile, diplomatic contacts are underway mediated by Qatar.