Iran's regional gambit and the fragile ceasefire
Iran launches missiles at Israel, then offers conditional ceasefire, as internal despair grows.
Iran's regional gambit and the fragile ceasefire — Late Sunday, Israeli aircraft struck Hezbollah’s headquarters in the Dahiyeh, southern Beirut. In response, Iran launched several ballistic missiles at Israeli territory. Israel then carried out limited strikes on Iranian air defense and military infrastructure. The exchanges mark a significant escalation in a conflict that has already seen Iran fire over 500 ballistic missiles and 2,000 drones in two weeks. Iran's Civil Aviation Organization announced the resumption of air traffic after the completion of "military operations" against Israel.[^1] Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei accused the United States of responsibility, stating, "Everything is coordinated with the US." He threatened that any action violating the ceasefire in Lebanon will be blamed on Washington.[^2] Baghaei's comments reflect Tehran's attempt to regain regional influence by striking Israel, as analyzed by the Jerusalem Post. Yet the escalation comes amid deep internal despair in Iran: about 1,700 civilians have been killed in attacks, and prices of cooking oil have risen by 430%, eggs by 345%, and rice by 287%.[^3] An anonymous engineer from Tehran wondered, "They bombed and destroyed the country in the name of regime change only to bring back Ahmadinejad?"[^3] Iran's conditional ceasefire offer demands an end to aggression on Beirut, but the war has no one left to end it, as Israel has killed Hassan Nasrallah and his heir.[^4] Communication lines between Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and other officials have been disrupted since Sunday night, and a source familiar with the escalation said the launches were likely carried out under "pre-established military protocols without coordination with Khamenei's office."[^5] The Houthis announced a ban on ships linked to Israel, threatening Red Sea shipping.[^6] Saudi Arabia has diverted over 70% of its crude exports to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.[^6] The EU sanctioned two Iranians and an IRGC unit for participating in the Hormuz blockade.[^7] The question is whether Iran's military escalation can be sustained alongside its economic collapse, or whether the regime's intern