Iran's oil leverage erodes as Strait of Hormuz flows again
Tehran's floating stockpile shrinks by nearly half, weakening its primary bargaining chip in nuclear talks.
Iran's oil leverage erodes as Strait of Hormuz flows again — President Trump vowed on Monday that the US will win the conflict with Iran "very soon," stating, "We're going to win; as far as I'm concerned, it's going to be one way or the other. It's going to go pretty quickly."[^1] The declaration came as regional oil exports are poised to return to near-record levels of almost 13 million barrels per day, a development that directly undermines Tehran's primary economic weapon.[^2] Iran's floating oil stockpile — crude stored on tankers and shipped out of the Strait of Hormuz before the blockade — has shrunk from 29 million barrels in early September to just about 15 million, according to reports.[^2] The rapid drawdown erodes Iran's ability to disrupt oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, a capability that has long served as its most potent leverage against global markets. Brent crude continues to trade at high levels around $106 per barrel, but the pressure on Iran's revenue stream is intensifying.[^2] The dilemma for Washington and its allies is now acute. While Iran's loss of oil disruption capability weakens its negotiating position, researchers warn that cornering Iran without income sources increases the risk of a frontal confrontation.[^2] A Jerusalem Post report indicated that Trump is willing to bend on Iran sanctions if progress is made on nuclear issues, suggesting a potential off-ramp.[^3] Meanwhile, an Iranian official stated that the parliament will consider a proposal to withdraw from the NPT, a move that would escalate the nuclear standoff further.[^4] The question now is whether the administration's strategy of maximum economic pressure can force a diplomatic breakthrough — or whether it will push Iran toward a more dangerous military posture as its last card is played. Netanyahu's blame-shift and the pre-October 7 warnings debate — Benjamin Netanyahu denied on Monday that he met or spoke with Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel before the October 7 attack. The denial comes as the prime minister, who this week marks 19 cumulative years in office, faces growing pressure over warnings the political echelon allegedly received from Egypt and