Who will surprise and who will remain outside the Knesset? The mandate map according to Polymarket

Analysis of Polymarket bets on Knesset seats: Likud leads with 20-24 seats according to 40% of bettors; Yashar (Eisenkot) with wide distribution; Together (Bennett-Lapid) 11-16; The Economic Party 60% chance to pass the threshold; Blue and White with 4% chance to pass.

An article on Channel 14 analyzes betting data from Polymarket regarding the expected number of Knesset seats for various parties in the upcoming elections. According to the contracts, Likud is expected to receive 20-24 seats according to the assessment of more than 40% of bettors, while 29% estimate fewer than 20 seats. The Yashar party led by Gadi Eisenkot shows a wider distribution in estimates, with 31% expecting 22-23 seats. The Together party of Bennett and Lapid receives estimates of 11-13 seats (38%) or 14-16 seats (35%). The Economic Party led by Yaron Zelicha and Yoaz Hendel is expected to pass the electoral threshold according to 60% of bettors. In contrast, Blue and White receives particularly pessimistic estimates, with 50% of bettors believing it will not even reach one percent of the votes. The article notes that the bets allow examining the market assessment of the power distribution in the Knesset.