What Israel can learn from Russia about thinking ahead in war - opinion

Opinion piece argues Israel should adopt Russia's systematic approach to military theory and foresight, not its tactics. Author Ori Biran contrasts Russia's institutionalized military thought with Israel's adaptive but theory-poor culture, citing Gerasimov's 2013 article and Adamsky's 2010 book. Recommends a standing forecasting forum, cabinet-owned security concept, and systematic study of adversaries' theories.

In this opinion piece, Ori Biran argues that Israel should learn from Russia's systematic approach to military theory and foresight, rather than focusing solely on tactical lessons from the war in Ukraine. Biran contrasts Russia's institutionalized military thought—embodied by the General Staff Academy, the Academy of Military Sciences, and the journal Military Thought—with Israel's adaptive but theory-poor culture. He cites Valery Gerasimov's 2013 article 'The Value of Science Is in the Foresight' and Dmitry Adamsky's 2010 book on Soviet military innovation as examples of Russia's habit of conceptualizing future warfare before building the technology. Biran notes that after Russia's initial theory collapsed in 2022, Moscow rewrote its strategic concept to redefine Europe as the main adversary and develop non-nuclear strategic deterrence. He contrasts this with Israel's unwritten security concept, citing Tamir Hayman's observation that it is 'revealed through practice' and the Prime Minister's Office's recent national security document. Biran recommends Israel establish a standing forecasting forum, a cabinet-owned security concept updated by law, and systematic study of how adversaries theorize. The framing relies on a selective comparison that omits Russia's battlefield failures and the classified nature of Israeli doctrine.