War with Iran - again? Why? And what should be done differently?

Former head of IDF Military Intelligence, Tamir Hayman, analyzes the possibility of renewed war with Iran, emphasizing the sensitive political context of elections in Israel and the US. He details the operational need and strategic opportunity, but determines there is no justification for war that would warrant disrupting the elections, and calls for learning from past lessons and exercising strategic sophistication.

Former head of IDF Military Intelligence, Tamir Hayman, analyzes in an opinion article the possibility of renewed war with Iran. He notes that escalating activism in the diplomatic and military arenas is likely leading to a confrontation, but raises serious concerns about the sensitive political context: elections in Israel and the United States and coalition negotiations. Hayman details the operational need – rebuilding Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities – and the strategic opportunity, including the "Trump effect" and Iran's dire economic situation. However, he emphasizes three lessons from the previous war: defining clear and coherent goals with the US, creating a closure mechanism that would give Iran an incentive to stop fighting, and preparing for a long war and surprises. In conclusion, Hayman determines that there is currently no justification for war that would warrant disrupting the elections in Israel, and that action should be taken with strategic sophistication and careful thought.