Upset in Spain? The right leads in polls; a pro-Israeli leader may rise to power

New polls in Spain, less than three weeks before the elections, indicate an advantage for the right-wing bloc, which includes the People's Party and Vox. The pro-Israeli leader of Vox, Santiago Abascal, may become a key partner in the next government, potentially altering Spain-Israel relations.

Less than three weeks before the general elections in Spain, new polls published today (Monday, November 9, 2026) indicate a significant advantage for the right-wing bloc, which could bring an end to the rule of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. According to the polls, the conservative People's Party is expected to win the largest number of seats in parliament, but will need the support of the far-right Vox party to form a government. A SocioMétrica poll gives the People's Party and Vox together about 200 seats out of 350, compared to 108 for the Socialist Party. A Sigma Dos poll indicates 199 seats for the right-wing bloc versus 105 for the Socialists. One of the significant changes that may occur concerns relations between Spain and Israel: Vox leader Santiago Abascal is considered a staunch supporter of Israel and met with Prime Minister Netanyahu in May 2024. In contrast, Sánchez has led a tough line against Israel, including recognition of a Palestinian state and an arms embargo. The election campaign is expected to focus on the housing crisis, immigration, and corruption scandals.