The ten data points that could decide the elections - and the identity of the next prime minister

Ten factors that could determine the outcome of the elections for the 26th Knesset: voter turnout, double envelopes, Arab society voting, first-time young voters, Haredi protest vote, battle for the largest party, mandate to form the government, use of the electoral threshold, and weather.

The article analyzes ten factors that could determine the outcome of the elections for the 26th Knesset, taking place today (Tuesday, October 27, 2026). Among the factors: overall voter turnout, which may affect parties at risk of falling below the electoral threshold; 650,000 double envelopes, which could change the seat distribution in a tight race; voter turnout in Arab society, which stood at 53.2% in the previous elections; and 618,839 first-time young voters. Also examined are the protest vote in the Haredi sector, the battle between Eisenkot and Bennett, Golan and Lieberman over the identity of the largest party, and the process of tasking the formation of the government by the President of the State. The article notes that weather may also affect voter turnout.