The Scenarios in the US Midterm Elections - and the Implications for Israel

The article reviews three possible scenarios in the US midterm elections and analyzes their implications for Israel: a full Democratic majority, a divided picture, and maintaining the Republican majority. It notes that Democrats are expected to win a majority in the House, while the Senate race is tight. The article examines the impact on aid budgets, US-Israel relations, and the possibility of renewed conflict with Iran.

The article reviews the three possible scenarios in the US midterm elections for the House and Senate, taking place tomorrow (Tuesday), and analyzes their implications for Israel. According to estimates, Democrats are favorites to win a majority in the House with about a 95% chance and an estimated 236 seats, while the Senate picture is tighter. The article notes that polls did not predict Trump's sweeping victory in the last election. The first scenario is a full Democratic majority, which would be a vote of no confidence in Trump and allow Democrats to control the agenda, delay aid budgets to Israel, and summon witnesses. The second scenario is a divided picture, where Democrats control the House but not the Senate, allowing political attacks but not legislation. The third scenario is maintaining the Republican majority, considered unlikely but ideal for Trump. The article emphasizes the impact of the composition of the next Israeli government on relations with the US, noting that if Netanyahu remains, Democrats will prepare for confrontation, while a government led by Eisenkot could allow a reset in relations.