The poll that shakes the bloc map: "Very bad news for the change bloc"

Three weeks before the 2026 elections, strategic consultant Roni Rish identifies two decisive variables: the voter turnout in Arab society and Ofer Winter, who is hovering around the electoral threshold. According to him, Winter's failure to pass could topple Netanyahu's bloc calculations, while an increase in Arab voter turnout could change the balance of power. The weekly poll average shows near parity between the blocs.

Three weeks before the Knesset elections, strategic consultant Roni Rish analyzes in an interview with Maariv the two key variables that may determine the election results. The first variable is Ofer Winter, who is hovering around the electoral threshold: in one poll he receives five seats, in two others he does not pass. Rish estimates that Winter has a stable support base of about two to three seats, but the volatility makes him a risk factor for the Netanyahu bloc. According to him, Winter may become the "next Meretz" - a party whose failure to pass affects the fate of an entire bloc. The second variable is the voter turnout in Arab society, which could reach 15 or 16 seats and change the balance of power. The weekly average shows near parity: the Netanyahu bloc about 51.7 seats, the opposing bloc about 52, and the Arab parties about 13.7. Rish estimates that even without a clear majority, politicians will avoid further elections and form a government.