Smart money changes direction: Dramatic turnaround in the race between Netanyahu and Eisenkot

Following the publication of exit polls, Polymarket shows sharp fluctuations: Netanyahu rises to 44% in the probability estimate to serve as the next prime minister, compared to 42% for Eisenkot. In the race for the largest party, Likud jumps to 85% while Yashar drops to 16%.

The popular platform Polymarket, where the total trading volume in the prime ministerial market has crossed the $67 million threshold, shows sharp fluctuations following the publication of election exit polls. According to the data, Benjamin Netanyahu has returned to the lead with a 44% probability of serving as the next prime minister, a jump of 16 percentage points, while Gadi Eisenkot drops to 42% after losing 12 percentage points. In the race for the largest party, Likud surged to an 85% probability, a leap of 54%, at the expense of the Yashar party, which fell to 16%. The article notes that the unidirectional movements illustrate the speed of money's reaction to the poll data, but leaves open the question of whether the gamblers have correctly read the map.