Prof. Alon Korngreen: It's the variance, stupid

Prof. Alon Korngreen analyzes recent election polls using Stephen Jay Gould's baseball analogy. He shows that focusing on average seat counts is misleading, and that the standard deviation between pollsters reveals the true uncertainty. The analysis focuses on small parties near the electoral threshold, showing that Ra'am, Religious Zionism, United Torah Judaism, and Shas are stable, while Amcha Yisrael and Handel-Zilicha face high uncertainty. Korngreen also examines the impact of Channel 14's poll and concludes that the Netanyahu bloc reaches at most 59 seats.

Prof. Alon Korngreen, a biophysicist and brain researcher from Bar-Ilan University, uses Stephen Jay Gould's baseball analogy to explain why focusing on poll averages is misleading. He presents an analysis of four recent polls submitted to the Central Elections Committee, calculating the average, standard deviation, and probability of passing the electoral threshold for each party. The findings show that Ra'am, Religious Zionism, United Torah Judaism, and Shas are in a stable position with low standard deviation and high probability of passing. Blue and White under Benny Gantz is far from the threshold with a low probability of a tenth of a percent. In contrast, Amcha Yisrael of Ofer Winter and the Handel-Zilicha list face high uncertainty, with a standard deviation greater than their distance from the threshold. Korngreen also examines the impact of Channel 14's poll, showing that adding it nearly doubles the standard deviation of Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu, but does not change the overall conclusion: the Netanyahu bloc reaches at most 59 seats in an optimistic scenario. The article emphasizes that the variance between pollsters, not just the averages, is key to understanding election uncertainty.

Prof. Alon Korngreen: It's the variance, stupid