Prof. Alon Korngreen: Has the people decided?
Prof. Alon Korngreen analyzes the election results and argues that claims of election theft and a landslide victory do not hold up to quantitative scrutiny. He shows that the coalition's drop from 64 to 53 seats stems from a reset of the balance, the mobilization of Arab society, wasted right-wing votes, and a net change of only two seats between the blocs.
Prof. Alon Korngreen, a biophysicist and brain researcher from Bar-Ilan University, analyzes the results of the elections for the 26th Knesset and presents a central argument: the two main narratives on election night—election theft on one hand and a landslide victory on the other—do not withstand quantitative examination. Korngreen examines the statistical data and finds no sign of widespread fraud. He analyzes the 2022 results and argues that the coalition's comfortable majority (64 seats) was built on the votes of Meretz and Balad that fell below the electoral threshold, and actually stood at 60 or 61 seats. For 2026, he breaks down the coalition's decline from 64 to 53 seats into four parts: resetting the balance (4 seats), Arab society mobilization (3 seats), wasted right-wing votes (2 seats), and a net change in the balance between the blocs (2 seats). The conclusion: the decision stemmed from participation and list splitting, not from voter crossover between blocs, and the balance between the blocs has barely moved since 2019.