Predictions of Gaza’s death toll were wrong - why is no one being held accountable? - opinion

Gaza's Hamas-run Health Ministry published its 2025 mortality report showing 24,650 deaths, with 17,286 attributed to war operations. The article argues that UN predictions of mass death from famine and disease did not materialize, citing the ministry's figures showing no surge in nonviolent deaths. It critiques the pattern of failed predictions about Israel.

In late September, Gaza's Hamas-run Health Ministry published its 2025 mortality report, the first since the war began to count every death in Gaza. The report recorded 24,650 deaths, of which 17,286 were attributed to 'war operations' without separating combatants from civilians, and 1,584 to accidents. Independent analyst Eirik Schrøder-Bråtane calculated that the remaining 5,780 nonviolent deaths roughly matched Gaza's prewar annual nonviolent toll. The article argues that these figures contradict UN warnings of mass death from famine and disease, noting that the ministry reported only 455 malnutrition deaths across nearly two years of war. It cites former British Army officer Andrew Fox, who said the famine allegations had been 'debunked by Hamas's own numbers.' The piece also references the UN's clarification that a warning about 14,000 babies dying referred to projected cases of severe acute malnutrition, not deaths. The article critiques the pattern of failed predictions about Israel, citing past examples including the 2002 Jenin operation and the 2023 Ahli hospital explosion.