Polymarket gamblers are certain: the battle in the US midterm elections has been decided

Polymarket gamblers are certain: the battle in the US midterm elections has been decided. According to the contracts, a Democratic victory in the House is almost certain (95%), while in the Senate the Democrats lead (77% vs. 23%). The forecasts align with a historical pattern of the ruling party losing seats in midterm elections. Economic pressures – oil prices, inflation, and interest rates – weigh on the American consumer.

Polymarket gamblers are certain: the battle in the US midterm elections has been decided. According to Polymarket contracts, the probability of a Democratic victory in the House stands at 95%, compared to only 5% for Republicans. In the Senate, the picture is less clear, but still gives a clear advantage to the Democrats, with a probability of 77% vs. 23% for Republicans. In the gubernatorial races, forecasts give Democrats about a 90% probability of holding a majority of governor seats. The forecasts align with a historical pattern: since 1938, the president's party has lost House seats in 20 out of 22 midterm elections. Republican weakness comes amid economic pressures – high oil prices due to the war with Iran, inflation, and rising interest rates in the US. Nearly 59 million Americans have already voted.