Polymarket flips: Eisenkot opens a gap on Likud
The Polymarket prediction market for the Israeli elections shows a dramatic reversal: Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar!" party leads with 62% against 39% for Likud on the question of the largest party. Trading volume has crossed $300,000. This marks a sharp change within weeks, after a month ago Likud led with 59%.
The Polymarket political prediction market indicates a dramatic reversal in the Israeli election race. Gadi Eisenkot's "Yashar!" party is now trading at a 62% probability of winning the most seats in the Knesset, while Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud stands at only about 39%. This is a sharp change within just a few weeks: about a month ago, Likud led with 59% compared to 41% for "Yashar!". The gap has flipped from a nearly 20-point advantage for Likud to a more than 20-point advantage for "Yashar!". Trading volume in this specific market has crossed the $300,000 threshold. The market will be decided by the party or list that wins the most seats, not by the identity of the prime minister who forms a coalition. The trend somewhat matches the latest poll picture, but the question of forming a government remains complex and depends on the distribution of seats between blocs.