Oren Leshem: Between Iran and the Ballot Box – The Paradox of Certainty and the Last National Test

Oren Leshem warns against initiating a military move against Iran on the eve of elections, calling it a 'paradox of false certainty.' He argues that the government has survived three years under the guise of war, and that the true national test is allowing the democratic process to take place without delay or panic.

Oren Leshem, a retired lieutenant colonel in the Israeli Air Force, argues in an opinion piece that the current government has survived three years primarily under the guise of war, which has become a central justification for maintaining power and a tool to fend off the establishment of a state commission of inquiry. He warns against initiating a military move against Iran on the eve of elections, calling it a 'paradox of false certainty' – a tendency to cling to escalation discourse out of an illusion that an aggressive step will restore control. According to him, such a move, which does not stem from an immediate existential threat, could deepen social rifts. Leshem criticizes the media, which he says will fan the flames and deepen divisions, and calls on the current leadership to prioritize the realization of the democratic process. He notes that all fronts of conflict remain open, and that the true national test is not to alarm the public and be dragged into panic on the eve of the polls.