Only five days to the elections: the prediction market estimates - the number of seats Likud will receive

Five days before the elections, the Polymarket prediction market shows: Gadi Eisenkot leads in probability for prime minister with 53%, Netanyahu with 28%. The 'Yashar' party leads with 70% chance of being the winning party, Likud with 30%. The forecast: Likud will receive 20-24 seats.

Five days before the Knesset elections, the Polymarket prediction market presents a grim picture for Likud. According to the platform's data, Gadi Eisenkot leads in probability for prime minister with 53%, a surge of 47 points. Benjamin Netanyahu is in second place with only 28%, and Naftali Bennett with 14% after a drop of 39 points. In a related measure, Eisenkot has a 65% chance of being the first to receive the mandate to form the government. Total trading volume has crossed $50 million. The 'Yashar' party leads in probability of being the winning party with 70%, while Likud receives only 30%. The forecast for seat distribution estimates that Likud will shrink to 20-24 seats (42% probability), with a 30% probability of dropping below 20 seats. The article notes that markets are influenced by global sentiment and do not represent a statistical sample of the Israeli voter.