Now or never: The fragile path to Lebanon normalization - interview

Senior US diplomat Morgan Ortagus describes the current opportunity for Israel-Lebanon normalization as fragile but historic, emerging from the weakening of Hezbollah. She emphasizes that the initiative came from Lebanese citizens, not Washington, and that rebuilding trust requires face-to-face military meetings and addressing the challenge of replacing Hezbollah's services in southern Lebanon.

Senior US diplomat Morgan Ortagus, who served as the Trump administration's lead envoy on Israeli-Lebanese relations in 2025, describes the current window for Israel-Lebanon normalization as a fragile but historic opportunity. She says the initiative did not originate in Washington but from Lebanese citizens telling her 'We have to go for peace. It's now or never.' The opportunity emerged from the dramatic weakening of Hezbollah after Israel killed its leader Hassan Nasrallah in 2024, which Ortagus compares to the US elimination of Qasem Soleimani. She warns against squandering this moment as she believes the Biden administration did after Soleimani's killing. Ortagus describes Hezbollah as having filled a vacuum left by the Lebanese state, providing health care, infrastructure, and schooling in southern Lebanon. The central challenge, she says, is a chicken-and-egg problem: the Lebanese government needs resources to replace Hezbollah, but potential Gulf donors need confidence Hezbollah will not return. She revived a military mechanism with Israeli and Lebanese officers meeting face-to-face after Israel released five Lebanese prisoners in March 2025, describing herself as 'the annoying teacher' forcing regular meetings. The billion-dollar question, she states, is how to convince Lebanon's Shi'ite population that normal relations with Israel will make their lives 'exponentially better' than continued allegiance to Iran.