Not Winter and not Ben Gvir: Maariv pollster estimates who may be the election surprise

Dr. Menachem Lazar, a Maariv pollster, estimates that the passage of two small parties over the electoral threshold could change the balance of blocs. Bennett is strengthening, the gap between Yashar and Likud is narrowing, and no bloc has 61 seats.

Dr. Menachem Lazar, a Maariv pollster, estimates that the passage of two small parties over the electoral threshold could change the balance of blocs in the 2026 elections. According to him, in the current poll, Ofer Winter does not pass the threshold by a fraction of a percent, but if he does, the gap in favor of the opposition will almost close. Lazar notes a significant strengthening of BeYachad led by Naftali Bennett, whom he defines as the big surprise of the last two weeks. The gap between Yashar led by Gadi Eisenkot and Likud has narrowed to just two seats. Lazar estimates that Bennett's strengthening harms Eisenkot, Yisrael Beiteinu, and the Reservists-Economic party. Another parameter is the voter turnout in the Arab sector, which if it increases, the Arab parties will receive more than 14 seats. Lazar emphasizes that no bloc has 61 seats and that shifts may also occur on election day itself.