Not just an atomic bomb: The threats that could bring about the end of humanity

A new report by the medical journal The Lancet warns of 17 global risks, including nuclear war and malicious use of artificial intelligence, that could lead to human extinction by the end of the century. The researchers present a model of healthy life years that could be saved through prevention, and offer a three-stage roadmap for building long-term resilience.

A new report by The Lancet Commission, presented at the World Health Summit in Berlin, warns of 17 global risks threatening human health, economic resilience, and national security. The commission identifies nuclear conflict and malicious use of artificial intelligence as risks with the potential for human extinction. Using a model of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), the report estimates that preventing nuclear conflict could save approximately 9.35 billion healthy life years by 2100, and reducing AI risks could prevent the loss of 10.4 billion life years. Limiting global warming to 1.8 degrees Celsius would prevent the loss of 1.89 billion life years. The report also maps additional risks: air pollution, antibiotic resistance, pandemics, obesity, and inequality. The researchers warn of cuts to international health aid, which could lead to the loss of 1.5 billion healthy life years, with 70% of the damage absorbed by African countries. The commission offers a three-stage roadmap including building health systems accustomed to threats, accelerating investments in medical and technological innovation, and strengthening monitoring and early solutions.