New study reveals: How Netanyahu and Eisenkot's chances change in the prediction market

A study analyzing 1.24 million transactions on Polymarket reveals how hundreds of dollars can boost candidates' chances for prime minister. Researchers warn of potential manipulation and the transformation of bets into headlines that influence public opinion, especially during restrictions on publishing polls.

A new study analyzing 1.24 million transactions on the Polymarket betting platform reveals how just a few hundred dollars can boost the chances of candidates for prime minister as displayed on the site. Researchers warn of possible manipulation and the transformation of bets into headlines that influence public opinion. One notable case occurred on September 29, when an account named Outlandish-Boxspring purchased contracts on Netanyahu for $100,000, raising his chance from 29.5% to 36%. Within two hours, the chance dropped back below 30%. In another case, four purchase orders raised the price of candidate Ofer Winter from 0.7 cents to 6.65 cents, leading to publication in Israel Hayom and three other media outlets, even though at the time of publication the site already showed a slight advantage for Lieberman. The study also points to concentration among large traders: seven accounts held 29% of the money invested against Netanyahu. It also found that 82% of active accounts also bet on security events related to Israel and Iran, and that four accounts together earned $2.97 million from bets on an agreement between the United States and Iran. Researchers emphasize that the problem is not only the ability to influence the price, but also how the price is presented to the public as a change in candidates' chances, especially during restrictions on publishing polls.