Israeli analysis identifies indicators of declining likelihood of resuming war on Iran after Democratic victory
An Israeli military analysis in 'Haaretz' suggests a decline in the likelihood of resuming war on Iran after the Democratic victory in the US midterm elections, based on oil price fluctuations and statements by Vice President Vance. It indicates that Trump will become a 'lame duck,' complicating his military moves, despite Netanyahu's continued efforts to drag Washington into a third war.
Military analyst Amos Harel of 'Haaretz' wrote an analysis indicating a decline in the likelihood of resuming war on Iran after the Democratic victory in the US midterm elections. The analysis is based on oil price fluctuations reflecting expectations of an end to the war in the Gulf, and statements by Vice President JD Vance, who considered the war on Iran and rising fuel prices the cause of the Republican defeat, calling for a return to an 'America First' policy. Harel believes the Democratic wave will put Trump in a weak position, making it difficult for him to pass new initiatives related to peace or war. The analysis questions whether this means a decline in Trump's chances of renewing the war on Iran, noting a decrease in tension levels in regional armies. Harel criticizes an Israeli warning reported by the New York Times about the possibility of Iran using chemical weapons, questioning why the Israeli public was not prepared for such a scenario. He notes that Netanyahu has not abandoned his efforts to drag the United States into a third round of war against Iran aimed at toppling the regime, while the Iranian regime remains steadfast. The analysis concludes that the likelihood of resuming fighting has declined, but the security threat remains, including the stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%. It warns that opposition to the war on Iran decided the outcome of the US elections, and that the negative shift in attitudes toward Israel is linked to deeper issues such as aversion to Netanyahu and the continuation of the occupation and destruction in Gaza.