Israel needs to turn military pressure on Iran into political change - opinion

Seth D. Kaplan argues that Israel should use military and economic pressure on Iran to help the Iranian opposition establish a protected enclave inside the country, setting a deadline of January 2029. He proposes four efforts: building a unified opposition, widening regime divisions, sustaining an information campaign, and pairing sanctions with a credible offer of relief under a successor government.

Seth D. Kaplan argues that Israel needs a strategy to turn military and economic pressure on Iran into political change by helping the Iranian opposition establish a protected foothold inside the country. He writes that sanctions and a blockade buy time but do not create a successor, and that without a protected enclave, another appeal for mass revolt risks another January slaughter. Kaplan proposes four mutually reinforcing efforts: building a strong opposition able to administer territory, widening divisions within the governing coalition by offering defectors protection and continued professional roles, sustaining an information effort that exposes regime failures while making a credible alternative visible, and pairing the blockade's pressure with a credible offer of sanctions relief and investment under a successor government. He cites the examples of Idlib in Syria and the Tigray People's Liberation Front in Ethiopia to argue that protected territory matters. Kaplan sets a deadline of January 2029, arguing that Israel cannot count on Trump's successor to give Iran the same priority. The writer teaches political risk at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies.