Israel fears surprise US strike on Iran as nuclear talks fuel concerns of escalation - analysis

Ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks have put Israel's defense establishment on high alert, with officials preparing for three scenarios: a surprise Iranian attack on US interests including Israel, a sudden US strike on Iran without warning, or a diplomatic deal allowing Tehran to resume enrichment and fund proxies. The IDF is strengthening coordination with the US military and raising alert levels.

Ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran have put Israel's defense establishment on high alert over the possibility of being caught off guard by a sudden escalation. Israeli security officials are preparing for three concerning scenarios: a surprise Iranian attack on US interests, including Israel; a sudden US decision to strike Iran without giving Israel sufficient advance warning; or a diplomatic agreement that would allow Tehran to resume uranium enrichment, produce precision ballistic missiles, and continue funding terrorist groups across the Middle East, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis. Tensions are already high after Iran's overnight attack on a US radar installation in Bahrain, carried out in retaliation for a strike on an IRGC command and control facility. Sources within Israel's defense establishment acknowledge that US President Donald Trump's next moves are difficult to predict. US military officials have reportedly told their Israeli counterparts that they are preparing for the possibility of receiving orders to go from "zero to a hundred" at a moment's notice. To reduce the risk of being caught off guard, the IDF is strengthening coordination with the US military and raising its alert level across intelligence monitoring, early warning, and air defense systems. IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir has visited the Lebanese border, warning Hezbollah that any involvement in an escalation led by Iran would be met with a severe military response. Israeli intelligence efforts are focused on monitoring missile launchers and bases, amid assessments that Iran has restored approximately 20% of the ballistic missile production capacity it possessed before Operation Roaring Lion.