Iran war, Hormuz disruptions drive first drop in global fossil fuel emissions since 2020 - report

Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall 0.4% in 2026, the first drop since 2020, partly due to disruptions from the US-Iran war affecting the Strait of Hormuz. Researchers warn the decline is unlikely to last.

Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall 0.4% in 2026, to about 38.2 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide, the first drop since 2020, according to the 2026 Global Carbon Budget report cited by the New York Times. The decline is partly driven by disruptions caused by the war between the US and Iran, which have affected shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that normally carries roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas. Between the Hormuz disruptions and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, global prices of crude oil, natural gas, gasoline, and diesel have skyrocketed, prompting many nations to use less and pivot to domestic alternatives such as coal or renewable energy. Emissions from oil are projected to fall 1.9% and from natural gas 0.3%, while coal emissions are set to rise 0.6%. Researchers warned that a decline driven by wartime conditions is not a reliable way to cut global emissions over time. Prof. Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter, who led the study, said the long-term answer remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies. Including deforestation and other land-use changes, total CO2 emissions are projected to reach 43.3 billion metric tons in 2026, up from 42.8 billion last year.