Iran on the brink of disaster: reservoirs are emptying and the ground is beginning to sink

Iran is facing a severe water crisis: about 80% of the capacity of the five main dams supplying water to Tehran remain empty despite recent rains. Six years of drought, over-extraction, and poor management have led to acute shortages. The phenomenon of land subsidence is expanding, and about 39 million people are at risk. President Pezeshkian has warned of the possibility of evacuating residents from Tehran.

Iran is grappling with a severe water crisis that threatens the drinking water supply for millions of residents, primarily in the capital, Tehran. The governor of Tehran Province, Mohammad Sadegh Motamedian, warned that despite recent rains, about 80% of the capacity of the five main dams supplying water to the city remains empty. This warning comes after six consecutive years of drought, amid declining reservoir levels, expanding groundwater use, and concerns that authorities may impose additional water restrictions in the coming months. According to data published by the Tehran Province Water and Sewage Company in early November, the five main dams together held less than 20% of their capacity. The Lar Dam stood at about 3% of its capacity, the Amir Kabir Dam at about 18%, and the Mamlu Dam at about 11%. A spokesperson for the water company, Behnam Bakshi, explained that Tehran needs 800 to 850 million cubic meters of water in reservoirs, while at the beginning of the month the amount was much lower. The water crisis is not solely due to a lack of rainfall. According to data published in June 2026, about 91% of the country's water consumption is directed to agriculture, compared to about 7% for domestic use and about 2% for industry. In 2025, Iran's water use exceeded the amount of available renewable resources by about 13 billion cubic meters. One alarming consequence is land subsidence. In October, it was reported that in areas of Kerman Province, the ground is sinking at a rate of 30-40 centimeters per year. According to a report by the Iranian Parliament Research Center, about 39 million people live in areas already affected by or at risk of land subsidence. In November 2025, President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that if sufficient rain does not fall, the government will have to limit water supply, and even raised the possibility of evacuating residents from Tehran. The crisis has also revived discussion about moving Iran's capital elsewhere. Lake Urmia in the northwest has shrunk from an area of nearly 6,000 square kilometers in the 1990s to just 581 square kilometers in 2026. About 27,000 villages, home to more than ten million people, face water shortages. An analysis by the American research institute Atlantic Council argued that some of the technological solutions suitable for Iran's water distress already exist in Israel, but hostile relations prevent direct cooperation.