How many asteroids could soon fall to Earth - alarming forecast

Astronomers have reported cataloging the 40,000th near-Earth asteroid. Scientists note that about 2,000 such objects have a non-zero chance of approaching Earth in the next 100 years, but most are too small to pose a serious threat. The main focus is currently on asteroids 100–300 meters in size, of which only about 30% have been detected.

Astronomers have reported the cataloging of the 40,000th near-Earth asteroid, marking a significant milestone in monitoring near-Earth objects. These asteroids range in size from a few meters to several kilometers. The first near-Earth asteroid discovered was Eros, found in 1898. By November 2025, astronomers had counted over 40,000 known near-Earth asteroids. About a quarter of them, roughly 10,000 objects, were detected in the previous three years. According to ESA, about 2,000 near-Earth asteroids have a non-zero chance of approaching Earth in the next 100 years, but most are too small to pose a serious threat. Large asteroids over 1 km in diameter are easiest to detect, and scientists believe nearly all such objects are already known. The main focus is on asteroids 100–300 meters in size, which are harder to spot but could cause regional-scale destruction upon impact. It is estimated that only about 30% of these objects have been detected so far. Future observatories, such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile and ESA's Flyeye telescopes, will help significantly expand the catalog.