Guy Amosi: Not who hits harder – who can hold out
Guy Amosi, a reserve colonel in the air defense array, analyzes the Iran-US confrontation in the Gulf as a war of attrition. In his view, the decisive question is not who hits harder, but who can hold out over time. He compares the two sides' ticking clocks: Iran, under economic pressure and sanctions, draws on the legacy of the Iran-Iraq War; the US, limited in resources and in other arenas. Israel must prepare for attrition scenarios and maintain coordination with Washington.
Guy Amosi, a reserve colonel in the air defense array and a director in defense companies, analyzes in his column the confrontation between Iran and the United States in the Persian Gulf as a war of attrition. In his view, the decisive question is not who hits harder, but who can hold out over time. He compares the two sides' ticking clocks: in Iran, members of the 'veteran guard' who returned to key posts draw on the lessons of the Iran-Iraq War, in which Iran survived for years under conditions of inferiority. Yet Iran's internal situation is complex: economic pressure, sanctions harming oil exports, damage to trade at the port of Bandar Abbas, and shortages and rising prices. Tehran's important clock is how long the Iranian public will be willing to pay the price. On the other side, the US has limited resources and cannot ignore other arenas such as China and Russia. The Strait of Hormuz is the meeting point of the two clocks: for the US, freedom of navigation is a strategic interest; for Iran, the threat to the energy artery grants major leverage. Israel must maintain long-term defensive capability, prepare for spillover into additional arenas, and ensure close coordination with Washington. The article concludes by asserting that in wars of attrition what is tested is the economy, the home front, stockpiles, alliances, political cohesion and patience.