Droughts, floods and storms around the world: Extreme El Niño on the way

NOAA confirmed that El Niño has strengthened to a "very strong" level, with a 60% chance of being the strongest event since 1950. Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean exceed 4°C above normal. Experts estimate that 2026 may be the hottest year on record, and 2027 is expected to break that record. Impacts: droughts, floods and changes in storm tracks worldwide.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed this week (Thursday) that the El Niño phenomenon has strengthened to a "very strong" level. The agency estimates there is about a 60% chance that the current event will be the strongest measured since 1950, through January 2027. The probability that the phenomenon will remain at a strong to very strong level in January-March 2027 exceeds 79%. NOAA data from November 12 indicates a deviation of more than four degrees Celsius in sea surface temperatures in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific. The term "super El Niño," which has become common in the media, is not an official scientific classification. In an interview with Scientific American, senior editor Andrea Thompson explained that the warming of waters in the eastern Pacific is breaking records. Temperatures in the central region are about 3.5°C above average and may reach a deviation of four degrees at the peak of the event, expected in November-January. Reconstructions based on tree rings and corals estimate that this is an exceptional event even compared to the period starting around 1100. Thompson noted that new studies suggest climate change may be contributing to an increase in the frequency of extreme events. She estimated that 2026 could be the hottest year on record, and that 2027 is almost certain to break that record. The average temperature in both years is expected to be at least 1.5°C higher than the pre-industrial period. El Niño's effects are evident in storm tracks: the phenomenon suppresses tropical storm development in the Atlantic and increases storm activity in the Pacific. In the U.S., El Niño brings more precipitation to southern states, while northern regions are expected to have a milder, drier winter. In California, there is concern about coastal flooding. Globally, impacts include drought and wildfires in Indonesia, floods in the Horn of Africa, and worsening drought in the Amazon basin.