Dr. Yoel Guzansky: The cracks in the sense of security – what the Saudis think about the war

Dr. Yoel Guzansky analyzes the impact of the ongoing war with Iran and the Houthis on the Saudi public's sense of security. Alongside damage to infrastructure and the economy, a possible erosion of public trust in the leadership's ability to ensure daily life is developing, against the backdrop of strikes on Riyadh and damage to King Khalid International Airport. However, there is no evidence of a broad crisis of confidence in the regime.

Dr. Yoel Guzansky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, analyzes the impact of the ongoing war with Iran and the Houthis on Saudi Arabia. Alongside damage to infrastructure, the economy, and deterrence capability, he identifies a possible erosion in the public's sense of security and trust in the leadership. The recent strikes on Riyadh, and especially the damage to King Khalid International Airport, have made the threat tangible and personal, with casualties, school closures, and disruptions to daily routine. Reports from Riyadh indicate a change in the tone of discourse: fear, fatigue, and uncertainty alongside a belief in the kingdom's ability to overcome. There is even talk of temporary departure. On social media, patriotism is evident alongside mourning, but the discourse may be influenced by expression restrictions and organized campaigns. Guzansky distinguishes between trust in the regime, which remains high, and trust in its ability to provide security, which is being tested. Mohammed bin Salman based his legitimacy on a promise of a prosperous and secure state, and the war threatens both of these foundations. The Houthi threat is particularly complex due to the lack of a clear political horizon and the fear of further entanglement in Yemen. Guzansky warns against far-reaching conclusions but notes that the absence of protest does not indicate an absence of concern. The main danger is that insecurity will become routine, and the Houthis do not need to defeat the Saudi army to achieve a strategic gain.