Dr. Moshe Elad analyzes the many factors surrounding al-Jolani

Dr. Moshe Elad analyzes the stability of the regime of Ahmed al-Shara (al-Jolani) in Syria. Despite an appearance of control, destabilizing factors are accumulating: sensitive relations with the Kurds, the imposition of Islamic laws in parts of the country, and the open dispute with the Druze in Sweida. The article compares the situation to past Israeli intelligence warnings and warns of a change in the internal balance of power that could lead to instability.

Dr. Moshe Elad analyzes in his article the stability of the regime of Ahmed al-Shara (al-Jolani) in Syria. Despite an appearance of control, destabilizing factors are accumulating: relations with the Kurds require a sensitive arrangement regarding security, language, and autonomy; in various parts of the country there is a tendency to impose Islamic laws, which is met with resentment; and the dispute with the Druze in Sweida remains an open wound. The article emphasizes that each factor alone does not topple a regime, but their accumulation could be dangerous. Elad compares the situation to past Israeli intelligence warnings: the First Intifada (1987), the Second Intifada (2000), the Second Lebanon War (2006), and October 7. He warns of a misleading picture of stability and points to four things to look for: a coalescing political alternative, shifts in power centers, the convergence of groups around a common formula, and a change in the attitude of external factors. As of now, there is no proof of an impending coup, but the question is about undercurrents.