Did UK pressure on Israel help Netanyahu, or bring his opponents closer to power? - analysis

An analysis of whether Britain's September 8 settlement sanctions, announced weeks before Israel's October 27 election, helped Benjamin Netanyahu or his opponents. Exit polls showed his bloc short of the 61 seats needed for a majority but ahead in total votes, with Likud far outpacing Eisenkot's Yashar. The piece weighs Ed Miliband's denial of interference against reports that British officials warned the timing could sway Israeli politics.

Britain's September 8 sanctions on Israeli settlements, announced weeks before the October 27 election, did not deliver a clear verdict on whether outside pressure helps or hurts Benjamin Netanyahu, an analysis in The Jerusalem Post argues. Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband told parliament he did not want to interfere in the vote and that London's quarrel was with the Netanyahu government's policies, not the Israeli people, in response to MPs including Shadow Foreign Secretary Tom Tugendhat who warned the timing could boost Israel's far Right. The measures included an import ban on settlement goods and restrictions on individuals and companies involved in settlement growth, following June 2025 sanctions on National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich by Britain, Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Norway. Exit polls showed Netanyahu's bloc falling short of the 61 seats needed for a majority while winning more votes overall than the change bloc, and Likud far surpassing Eisenkot's Yashar, which pre-election polls had suggested would do better. The article stresses that neither result proves the sanctions shaped how Israelis voted. A Spectator report relayed by Globes alleged British diplomats and intelligence officials warned the government that announcing before the election risked affecting Israeli politics, and that Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar asked Miliband to delay. Sa'ar accused the UK of blatant interference in a sovereign state's electoral process. The writer distinguishes accepting a political risk from deliberately seeking an electoral outcome, and notes voters weighed October 7, security, haredi conscription exemptions and the cost of living.