Deadlock deepens as post-deadline polls leave both blocs short of 61 Knesset seats - analysis

Polls published after the Knesset list deadline show neither the change bloc nor the current coalition reaching 61 seats, deepening the electoral deadlock. Parties are recalibrating, with Yashar's Yoram Cohen suggesting a minority government scenario. Legal petitions to disqualify rival parties are being used as campaign weapons rather than serious legal efforts. The deadlock forces both sides to consider unconventional coalition options, including potential cooperation with Arab parties or a post-Netanyahu Likud.

Polls published since last week's deadline for submitting Knesset lists have shattered any hope of clarity, showing neither the change bloc nor the current coalition reaching the 61 seats needed for a majority. A KAN News survey had the two blocs tied at 52 seats each, with Arab parties winning 12 and the party headed by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha winning four. Channel 12 had the change bloc at 54 seats, the current coalition at 50, the Arab parties at 12, and Hendel and Zelekha's party at four. This has forced parties to recalibrate. On the Likud side, Ofer Winter's People of Israel party crossed the threshold in nine of 11 major polls, creating a dilemma for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu: try to push Winter below the threshold, potentially wasting votes, or ease up to ensure his party crosses and adds seats to the bloc. Yoram Cohen, former Shin Bet head and No. 2 on Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar list, outlined two scenarios in a Channel 12 interview. He indicated that if the bloc fails to secure a majority, Yashar might establish a minority government with outside support from Arab parties, then try to attract other Zionist parties including a post-Netanyahu Likud and Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionist Party. Cohen ruled out cooperation with Itamar Ben-Gvir's Otzma Yehudit, calling Ben-Gvir a racist. The scenario appears far-fetched now, but the very fact that Cohen discussed bringing Likud and Smotrich into an Eisenkot-led government indicates both sides are looking beyond their public insistence that their own bloc will emerge victorious. Parties are also turning to the Central Elections Committee to disqualify rivals: The Democrats against Otzma Yehudit, Otzma Yehudit against The Democrats and Ra'am, and Likud against the Arab parties. These petitions are less serious legal efforts than campaign weapons, aimed at tarnishing rivals and defining any coalition relying on them as illegitimate.