Could October 7 repeat and who will win the elections – polls

Recent polls show discrepancies in electoral force assessments between TV channels: according to Channel 13, Yashar and Likud each receive 20 mandates, while the opposition with Arab parties gets 65. A Channel 14 poll gives Likud 31 mandates and the right-wing bloc 63. 63% of respondents believe the events of October 7 could repeat. 37% are confident in Israel's victory, 13% in Hamas's, half see no winners. Netanyahu leads Eisenkot 52% to 48%.

Recent sociological research data published by Cursor Info reflects the current political landscape ahead of possible elections in Israel. The polls show serious discrepancies in electoral force assessments between the country's leading TV channels. According to Channel 13, the Yashar and Likud parties are tied in the number of mandates, each receiving 20 seats. The current coalition bloc gets 55 mandates, while the opposition together with Arab parties has 65 seats. A completely different picture is shown by a Channel 14 poll conducted by NEXT DATA. In this study, Likud led by Benjamin Netanyahu remains the largest party with 31 mandates, and the right-wing bloc as a whole gets 63 seats. The Yashar party under Gadi Eisenkot gets 23 mandates and leads an alternative opposition bloc. Israelis' attitude toward security remains alarming: about 63% of respondents believe that tragic events like October 7 could repeat. Assessments of the war's outcome are divided: only 37% of respondents said Israel won, 13% gave victory to Hamas, and half of citizens are sure there are no winners in this conflict. On the question of national leadership, Benjamin Netanyahu leads with 52% support. In a direct confrontation with Gadi Eisenkot, the incumbent prime minister also leads with 52% against 48%. Strategic consultant Roni Hersh notes that the final mandate distribution could be affected by turnout among Arab voters and the prospects of the Amah Israel party led by Ofer Winter.