Could Egyptian military deployment in Somalia upset Horn of Africa balance of power? - analysis

Egypt is reportedly preparing to deploy troops to Somalia under a 2024 military cooperation agreement, positioning forces near Mogadishu. The move, reported by The New Arab, comes amid interconnected conflicts in Sudan, Ethiopia, Libya, and Somalia, and as Pakistan and Turkey may deploy to Saudi Arabia against Houthi threats. The deployment risks shifting the Horn of Africa's balance of power, potentially affecting Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Red Sea security.

Egypt is reportedly preparing to deploy military personnel to Somalia, including advisors, trainers, and officers, under a joint military cooperation agreement signed in 2024. The deployment, reported by The New Arab, would position Egyptian troops at the former Cisiley Airfield near Mogadishu, about 400 kilometers from the nearest point on Ethiopia's border with Somalia. This move comes as Pakistan and Turkey may also deploy forces to Saudi Arabia to support defenses against Houthi attacks on Saudi airports. The Egyptian deployment risks upsetting the Horn of Africa's balance of power, as Egypt has recently reached out to leaders in Eritrea, Sudan, and Somalia amid concerns over spiraling conflicts to its south. The region is marked by interconnected wars: Sudan's civil war between the SAF and RSF, Ethiopia's internal conflicts including the Tigray war and a new rebel alliance, Somalia's fight against al-Shabaab, and Libya's split between the Turkey-backed GNU and Egypt-backed Haftar. Any change in the balance could reverberate to the Red Sea, Eastern Mediterranean, and Indian Ocean.