Between Iran, Iraq and a hard place: Iraq’s prime minister weighs next moves - analysis

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi faces a critical decision on whether to continue pressuring Iranian-backed militias or back down, as Iraq closes the Mandali border crossing with Iran and reopens the Sheeb crossing. Al-Zaidi, who has US support, is weighing an arrest campaign against militias like Kataib Hezbollah, which has increased rhetoric and may have attacked the Khor Mor gas field. Iran is also appointing a new IRGC ambassador to Iraq.

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi is weighing his next moves amid a US pressure campaign to cut off Iran's land borders and rein in Iranian-backed militias. Reports on Monday indicated Iraq closed the Mandali border crossing with Iran in Diyala province, while reopening the Sheeb crossing after weeks of closure. Al-Zaidi, who came to power after the November 2025 election, has US support and initially sought militia disarmament by September 2026, later extended to June 2027. Now he is considering a campaign of arrests against the militias, as Kataib Hezbollah has upped its rhetoric and may have been behind an attack on the Khor Mor gas field in Kurdistan. Meanwhile, al-Zaidi made an unannounced visit to Iran, and an Iranian delegation went to Kurdistan; Iran is also appointing a new IRGC ambassador to Iraq. The article frames Iran as viewing Iraq as its near abroad, working through Shi'ite parties and militias, and notes that Iran has often outplayed previous Iraqi leaders through co-optation or threats.