Assessment: Iran refrains from attacks to avoid thwarting a government with Arab support

Senior security officials identify a link between the negotiations to form a government with the support of the Arab parties and the decline in the scope of terrorist incidents. The assessment: the enemies are refraining from attacks to avoid thwarting the establishment of a left-wing government, and are waiting for political developments in Israel.

Senior security officials identify a direct link between the political situation in Israel and the decline in terrorism across various fronts. According to them, the enemy is closely monitoring developments in Israel and waiting to see which government will be formed. Before the elections, Israel faced a severe threat level, but now terrorist activity is at a low. The assessment is that the decline is not coincidental, and that behind it lies a political calculation by terrorist organizations. The enemies seek to see whether a left-wing government will be formed with the support of the Arab parties, or whether Benjamin Netanyahu will continue to serve. Until the picture becomes clear, the enemies are restraining their activity and refraining from moves that could affect the political reality. The assessment is that the enemies do not want to thwart the possibility of forming such a government through attacks. Those same sources describe close coordination among the enemies on various fronts, with Iran directing from above. The relative calm does not indicate a change in the enemies' intentions, but rather reflects a wait for the outcome of the struggle over forming the government.