Why Trump Finds It Hard to Reach a Deal with Iran's New Leaders – Analyst

Analyst Jean-Pierre Filiu, in a column for Le Monde, explains that internal strife and the strengthening of the radical wing in Iran hinder Trump from reaching an agreement. Unlike Obama, Trump conducts direct negotiations without an international format, which weakens the moderates. After Khamenei's death, the IRGC consolidated power, and the new commander Vahidi demands concessions. President Pezeshkian, who signed protocols with Trump, is constrained by IRGC demands, including lifting sanctions and $300 billion. The key dispute is the Strait of Hormuz.

An analytical column by Professor Jean-Pierre Filiu in Le Monde, retold by Kursor, explains why US President Donald Trump finds it difficult to reach an agreement with Iran's new leaders. According to the author, the key barrier is internal strife and the strengthening of the radical wing in Iran's leadership. Filiu draws parallels with Barack Obama's approach in 2015, when a broad international format involving Europe, China, and Russia allowed then-President Hassan Rouhani and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif to maneuver and restrain conservatives and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Trump, however, preferred direct contacts mediated by Oman and Pakistan, depriving Iranian moderate diplomats of external support. After the death of Ali Khamenei and the rise of his son Mojtaba, whose status remains unclear, the IRGC's position strengthened. The expert assigns a special role to the new IRGC commander-in-chief Ahmad Vahidi, who seeks to concentrate power and demands concessions from the White House. The appointment of Vahidi's ally Ali Abdollahi Aliabadi as chief of the general staff cemented the security forces' control. President Masoud Pezeshkian, who signed framework protocols with Trump in mid-June, found himself constrained by IRGC demands, including the complete annulment of sanctions and the allocation of $300 billion for economic recovery. The epicenter of the confrontation remains the Strait of Hormuz: Vahidi believes that Washington, having failed to achieve a military victory, will eventually come to terms with Iranian control over this artery. Dragging out negotiations benefits the radicals, who are confident in the success of the escalation strategy.